For the past 25 years, application software startups have had a singular focus: increasing company and employee productivity. AI enables a paradigm shift. Rather than sell software to improve an end-user’s productivity, consider what it would look like to sell the work itself. When you sell the work, instead of selling a 15% productivity improvement, you sell a 95% improvement. Incumbents are not only advantaged in selling software, they are stuck there. You don’t need to play their game.

[Experimenting with the Substack/Medium cross post.] It seems clear that over the next 5+ years, any work for which a human is a critical input into the work product is vulnerable to substitution with a software product built leveraging large language models (LLMs) and some of the related technology. Copywriting…

When I was at Pinterest leading product for the Discovery team, we started to leverage deep learning for our recommendations. It was always the case that while deep learning enabled a step-function change in the results (as measured by user engagement), the results got dramatically better once we took that…

In my last post, I explored the possible bull case for ChatGPT eclipsing Google’s dominance. But I tipped my hat also at what I think is the bear case. As I mentioned, ChatGPT’s unbounded interface a bit like as if, instead of DoorDash’s focused launched strategy, DoorDash launched across all…

ChatGPT’s interface is to say the least, bold. A chat interface is unbounded in the requests you can make, and the nature of its singular answer delivered with an “English professor’s writing skills [and] an encyclopedia’s knowledge base”, can leave you in the trance of believing its omniscience. Of course…

I’ve written before that to compete against an incumbent marketplace, re-imagine the atomic unit. I suspect the same is true in consumer social. Indeed, I’d guess you need four things to be true (besides magic!): A new atomic unit that resonates with large enough segment. It’s important than an incumbent…

Often we talk about markets as if we were speaking about a body of water — a description of the size or depth. I’ve found it is far more useful to think of markets instead like a river with a current. …

I am so going to regret putting “weekly” in the title here. But this year, in the spirit of new year resolutions, I’d love to try something new. Every year, I wish I wrote more. I don’t actually like writing (I am a slow painful writer), but as the saying…

How Web3 needs to evolve to discover use cases beyond speculation There is nothing like meeting a founder that makes you feel the future will be different. I’ve felt that more times than I can count when meeting a founder working on a web3/crypto project. …